We start by toneing at the front of the Automobile sales (in Millions) which has been almost flat only about going downward & plunging beginning 2008 - predominantly ascribable to the slump in the global economy (which is attributed as recession). resembling most industries seasonal impacts and cyclic nature (annually) are unvarnished also in the automobile sector. Peaks are centered on the summer months of May- August. Its generally the summer months when people specify it the best time to buy automobiles. The announcement of promotions & plus in salaries are generally announced during beginning of the year for most of the employees / salaried people. This is reflected in the salaries from typically March of any year hence we see that people have a higher disposable income to upgrade to a new car or buy a new one.
Firstly we look to delineate the seasonality by evaluating the seasonal index factors (in fact monthly index) so that we can forecast the true sales deflower of the effects of each month due to some factors we mentioned previously.
attached this high level view we take a boneheaded dive to forecast what concrete sales could be achieved in this sector in the next 24 months (i.e. year 2010 and 2011) tending(p) that AutoNation generates 2% of the total sales. Adopting the industry standards recommended in the statistical dramaturgy we apply 4 forecasting methodologies. We forecast on the deseasonalized sales, win over the period in absolute increasing numbers and so re-apply the seasonal index to get the seasonal sales values. The 4 methods are:
a) Linear Regression simple regression of time(numeric) v/s sales
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